Monday, January 23, 2006

Pick a number

So, with mere hours left in this government, it's time to make a prediction on seat numbers. I'm not running this through any site that takes percentage of popular vote and churns out a seat count. This is just pure guesswork on my part.

For Newfoundland:
Conservative - 4 (alas, I don't think Scott Simms is going to hold)
Liberals - 3
NDP - 0
Green - 0

For the rest of Canada:

Conservative - 141
Liberals - 79
Bloc - 59
NDP - 29

Feel free to add your guesses in the feedback section.

Currently Playing On iTunes
Lucky You Are - Colleen Power


Liam O'Brien said...

I'm trying to reflect the slight bumps and splits that Gregg was talking about yesterday. . .while not being overly optimistic

My final cautiously optimistic prediction):

CPC - 157
Lib - 60
BQ - 59
NDP - 32

CPC - 4 (Bonavista Gander - Grand Falls - Windsor, Avalon, St. John's
South Mount Pearl, St. John's East)
Liberal - 3 (Humber St. Barbe Baie Verte, Random Burin St. Goerge's,

[I think that CPC will win a slight plurality of the popular vote in
NL but that NDP numbers will be very impressive here too. At least one
St. John's Liberal will come 3rd behind an NDP who will place 2nd]

Liberal - 3

CPC - 5
Liberal - 3
NDP - - 3

CPC - 6
Lib - 3
NDP - 1

CPC - 6
Lib - 10 (worst showing in history)
BQ - 59

CPC - 64
Lib - 27
NDP - 15

CPC - 8
Lib - 2
NDP - 4

CPC - 13
Lib - 1 (Ralph will BARELY hang on)

CPC - 28

CPC - 22
Lib - 6
NDP - 8

Lib 1

NDP - 1

Lib - 1

Liam O'Brien said...

wow, I was way off on my grit/CPC numbers . . . Ontario threw me for a loop . . .


Ed Hollett said...

You listened to Allen Gregg because he told you what you wanted to hear and he got lost of coverage.

On the St. John's ridings with a Liberal in third place you ignored local polling and listened instead to rumour.

If you checked the vote predictor/seat predictors you'll discover that UBC and democratic space were almost spot on across the board.

You guys would both have seen why I consistently relied on SES numbers, at least at the national level. he was spot on.

oh yeah, and he's worked more Connie campaigns than not.

Anonymous said...

Please Ed, try to show some slight grasp of the real world here. I'm fully willing to admit I'm terrible at predicting elections.

You're not much better, not that you offered much of a public prediction.

You were going through the campaign going on about how much trouble Loyola Hearn and Norm Doyle were in . . . It's laughable. They increased their leaders to double digits.

I've admitted to my non-Kreskin abilities. Do you have the guts or the decency or consistency to do the same?

towniebastard said...

Now, now kids. Let's not get to overheated. Remember, election seat predicting is just for fun and bragging rights (and money, if you're in a pool). And really, using websites that using mathmatical equations to predict seats is kind of cheating. It's more fun to look at some polls and take your best guess.