Tuesday, October 28, 2008

US predictions

Since we're on a bit of a political roll, and the US election is now mercifully into its final week, I figured now is as as good a time as any to make my prediction about the US election.

Obviously I think Obama is going to win. That's not much of a prediction. However, I'm also going to predict what states he's going to win and how many electoral votes he's going to get compared to McCain. In most states, the winner of that states popular vote wins all the electoral votes. There are at least two exception to that, as I understand it, and they are Maine and Nebraska. Those states offer up their electoral votes based on who wins each congressional district.

Normally that doesn't matter too much. However, there are some who believe that one of Nebraska's congressional districts might swing towards Obama. For the record, I don't think that's going to happen although at least one of my readers is going to strongly disagree with me.

So which states are going to go to whom? Oh, and the list includes the District of Columbia.

Obama (30) - California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Nevada, North Dakota, North Carolina,Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin.

McCain (21)- Alaska, Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming.

So that means Obama will get 375 electoral votes, McCain will get 163. Which is a pretty healthy landslide.

The states italicized are the ones that I'm not 100 per cent sure on. Giving both Ohio and Florida to Obama was a hard decision given both states' history of screwing over Democrats. Still, both states have polling giving it to Obama. And given the vast money and ground advantage Obama has in Florida it's hard not to favour him.

Indiana has been swinging towards Obama, but I think McCain manages to hold on. I hesitated on North Carolina, but there's quite the senate race happening in that state, one the Democrats are favoured in so that might help Obama in that state. Both Montana and North Dakota are toss-ups, so I split the difference. As for Missouri, the state has one of these track records of backing the winner for president for most of the last 100 years, so I think it'll break for Obama.

We'll see how close I am. Feel free to offer up your predictions in the comments section. Oh, and by the way, I reserve the right to change my numbers if something catastrophic happens between now and election day to either candidate. Although really, it's kind of hard to figure out how much worse things can get for McCain at this point, what with the advisers for McCain sniping at Palin and Palin advisers sniping at McCain. This is what happens when a campaign is on the verge of imploding, which is what's happening to McCain/Palin '08.

Revised - Oooops....I forgot South Carolina, which I'll put into the McCain column. That means the revised total should read: Obama - 367, McCain - 171.

Last Five
1. Traffic - Lloyd
2. Rain - Hawksley Workman
3. Savoy truffle - The Beatles
4. Cologne Cerrone Houdini - Goldfrapp
5. Dance club (comedy) - Bill Hicks*


Way Way Up said...

I'll be very interested to see how FOX news is going to spin things once McCain/Palin get destroyed. I was thinking of doing some predictions of my own but I haven't been able to follow the campaign as closely as I would have liked. Your predictions look pretty reasonable to me so I'll go with them and see how things turn out.

Interesting little fact about Maine and Nebraska. Not something I was aware of.

Mrs. Smith - your favorite Cornhusker said...

NE-02 will be very close. For the first time in 14 years there are now more registered Democrats in the City of Omaha than Republicans. NE-02 is home to most of Omaha.
Early voting has been very busy which is a good sign that turnout will be high. Driving around the western side of the city (which happens to be "red" area) you see more Obama signs and car stickers than McCain. The Obama campaign is canvassing by phone and foot everyday until the election. I've been at the office calling "senior" Democrats to see if they have voted early or by absentee. People are arranging rides/carpools to the polls. It is amazing.

If anything we will have a much more "purple" hue on Nov. 4th. With any luck we'll have a Democrat in Congress and with a miracle we could have a Dem in Chuck Hagel's Senate seat.

I'll be in touch on election day to let you know how things are shaking out down here.

towniebastard said...

All well and good, Mrs. Smith, but where's your prediction? What states did I get wrong and how many electoral votes will Obama get?

You know, that post-election come down on November 5 is going to be vicious, right?

Mrs. Smith - your favorite Cornhusker said...

I've been watching fivethirtyeight.com. I agree with your list but I personally want Arizona in our column. That would be a huge f-you to McCain. It could be a close one!
I agree that Indiana and Montana are in play but it all comes down to turnout.

Wednesday I'll have a hangover either way! Its been a long 8 years. I'll be much happier to move to Canada on good terms over bad. It wouldn't have been right for us to have moved in 2004. I'll enjoy watching from St. J's all the good things happening down here.

Anyone know if there is an Americans Abroad group in St. John's?

Mrs. Smith - your favorite Cornhusker said...

Ooooh neeto - an interactive electoral map!


geek out!

towniebastard said...

Ah, and using that I noticed I made a mistake. I forgot South Carolina, which should go in the McCain column. That means the totals should be:

Obama - 367
McCain - 171.