Monday, February 01, 2010

Oscar predictions '10

If I'm not mistaken the Oscar nominations come out tomorrow. As semi-regular tradition around these parts is to offer up my predictions. This isn't based on which things I think deserve to get a nod. For that matter, several of the movies I'm about to mention I haven't even seen yet, although I clearly need to go out and rent The Hurt Locker. It not only sounds fantastic, but the reviews for it are nearly all raves.

I tend to hit about 70 per cent on my predictions, just because the Academy is weird and like to throw in the occasional screwbay just to keep people on their toes. I also don't do all the categories, simply because I have no idea who is going to be nominated for best costuming or make-up. Although if I might throw out a small plea for the score from Sherlock Holmes to get a nod, as it was one of the most distinctive, and fun, of the year.

Anyway, here are my picks for the categories of best movie, director, actor, actress, supporting actor, support actress, original screenplay and adapted screenplay. Oh, and Best Animated Movie, just for the hell of it.

Best Movie
1. Up in the Air
2. Avatar
3. The Hurt Locker
4. Inglorious Basterds
5. Precious
6. Up
7. An Education
8. Invictus
9. Crazy Heart
10. District 9

The first five I'm pretty damn sure about. The bottom five I'm not as certain about, although six through eight I'm pretty sure about. Nine and ten are me picking a few out there movies because I think there's going to be a few weird choices. I won't be surprised if something like The Hangover and Star Trek makes the final cut. Having ten best picture movies, just for the record, is really stupid.

Best Director
1. Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)
2. Jason Reitman (Up in the Air)
3. James Cameron (Avatar)
4. Quentin Tarantino (Inglorious Basterds)
5. Lee Daniels (Precious)

Pretty sure about the top four. Not sure about Daniels, but I think he has a pretty good chance.

Best Actor
1. Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)
2. George Clooney (Up in the Air)
3. Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)
4. Vigo Mortensen (The Road)
5. Morgan Freeman (Invictus)

Dead certain about the first two, pretty sure about number three. The other two spots are a bit of guess work.

Best Actress
1. Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side)
2. Meryl Streep (Julie and Julia)
3. Gabourey Sidibe (Previous)
4. Carey Mulligan (An Education)
5. Penelope Cruz (Broken Embrace)

Dead certain about the first three, and I'm pretty certain about Mulligan. I'm picking Cruz just because the Academy seems to like having her at these shows in tight dresses.

Best Supporting Actor
1. Christoph Waltz (Inglorious Basterds)
2. Woody Harrelson (The Messenger)
3. Matt Damon (Invictus)
4. Christopher Plummer (The Last Station)
5. Stan Tucci (Julie and Julia)

I'm certain about the first pick. After that, eh....

Best Supporting Actress
1. Mo'Nique (Precious)
2. Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air)
3. Samantha Morton (The Messenger)
4. Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart)
5. Sigourney Weaver (Avatar)

Again, I'm sure about the first one. And I'm picking Weaver just because I think the Academy might make some history by picking an actor whose performance was at least partially animated.

Best Original Screenplay
1. Inglorious Basterds
2. Up
3. The Hurt Locker
4. (500) Days of Summer
5. Avatar

I'm dead certain about the first three, not so certain about #4, but a lot of people seem to like it. And I'm picking Avatar just because I know how many people will be pissed off if that movies gets a writing nod.

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. An Education
2. Up in the Air
3. Precious
4. Crazy Heart
5. A Single Man

Dead certain about the first three. As for numbers four and five, who knows.

Best Animated Movie
1. Up
2. Fantastic Mr. Fox
3. Coraline
4. Ponyo
5. The Princess and the Frog

Pretty damn sure about the first three, the Academy loves Hayao Miyazaki, so I'm pretty certain about that one. Not sure about the last one, so we'll see.

And there you have it. We'll see how right I am in about 12 hours.

Last Five
1. Lies (live) - Stan Rogers
2. Chips ahoy - The Hold Steady
3. Lust - The Raveonettes
4. First we take Manhattan (live) - Leonard Cohen*
5. Dick-all - Colleen Power


Anonymous said...

Excellent picks, though I am still trying to track down "The Road" just to see it at least. 2012 should get a nod for special effects ( not much else though!) and I personally hope District 9 gets a few nods, for the clever 'statements' they have made about our society and the scenarios we see played out decade after decade, from one country to the next. It is amazing how many people thought this was just an 'alien' flick...

Sandra Bullock and Meryl Streep... of course!

Precious, what a great movie, heartbreaking .

Now what is your pic for Rotten Tomato?
Sorry Sandra, but 'All About Steve' was a disaster , as was the Transformers. And Knowing... Damn Nicholas, what were you thinking???

gpc said...

Super -- I know nothing about any of them, but they're all in my netflix queue now, thanks to you!

Anonymous said...

Please do yourself a favour and save your money, do not rent The Hurt Locker. I have no idea where these good reviews are coming from, unless they are all from neo con pro war americans. It was the worst movie I have seen in a long time, I have been itching to see a really good war movie about one of the more recent wars but it just seems as if they are all full of cliches and bad acting. I almost walked out on this one, and no one I know has enjoyed it, bad story, bad acting, bad directing, unrealistic and full of really bad cliches, in fact I really wish I had that two hours of my life back, that is how bad it was!!!!

Ed Hollett said...

Sometimes you read anonymous comments and just have to have a good laugh. There is not a simple storyline to follow with a big resolution and a happy ending. If you want that, then keep your brain in neutral and try something else.

Hurt Locker is a fairly tense movie and requires that you are prepared to actually sit and pay attention to what is going on.

There's a reason why it gets good critical acclaim but was not well received at the box office.

That would be because it neither glorifies the situation nor the people in it. It also avoids cliche like the plague.

This is a movie about people as real people, not caricatures.

As for cliche, this ain't Jarhead with its rehashed version of Marine Corps recruit training seen in every movie since FMJ. It also isn't a Hanoi-Jane style story of mindless baby killers

Some Americans likely felt uncomfortable with its authentic but sometimes unflattering portrayal of soldiers.

Rent it, Craig, if you liked movies like BlackHawk Down. But if you think that We were Soldiers is the best thing since , you might give it a miss.

Anonymous said...

Actually Ed, Black Hawk Down is one of my favourite movies, and I wouldn't even consider watching Jarhead due to its cliches. I wasn't expecting a happy ending, or something like Jarhead. I was hoping the movie would be more like Chris Hunter's Autobiography, "Eight Lives Down", but perhaps my expectations were too high. I actually attended the movie with two soldiers, one who had recently returned from a pretty intense tour of Afghanistan and he was really disgusted by the cliches and lack of realism, and didn't find the movie tense at all, and he was in a vehicle blown up by an IED. Perhaps if I had of put my brain in neutral instead of expecting emotions to be evoked I would have enjoyed it. Most people I talk to, who aren't looking for a typical happy ending, or Army recruiting movie were disappointed by the Hurt Locker. Just my two cents anyways.

Michael said...

The film was a pretty tense and realistic look at the situation in Iraq in general and the life of one bomb disposal expert in particular. It was a well made film, but not for everyone. Definitely Oscar material.