If I'm not mistaken the Oscar nominations come out tomorrow. As semi-regular tradition around these parts is to offer up my predictions. This isn't based on which things I think deserve to get a nod. For that matter, several of the movies I'm about to mention I haven't even seen yet, although I clearly need to go out and rent The Hurt Locker. It not only sounds fantastic, but the reviews for it are nearly all raves.
I tend to hit about 70 per cent on my predictions, just because the Academy is weird and like to throw in the occasional screwbay just to keep people on their toes. I also don't do all the categories, simply because I have no idea who is going to be nominated for best costuming or make-up. Although if I might throw out a small plea for the score from Sherlock Holmes to get a nod, as it was one of the most distinctive, and fun, of the year.
Anyway, here are my picks for the categories of best movie, director, actor, actress, supporting actor, support actress, original screenplay and adapted screenplay. Oh, and Best Animated Movie, just for the hell of it.
1. Up in the Air
3. The Hurt Locker
4. Inglorious Basterds
7. An Education
9. Crazy Heart
10. District 9
The first five I'm pretty damn sure about. The bottom five I'm not as certain about, although six through eight I'm pretty sure about. Nine and ten are me picking a few out there movies because I think there's going to be a few weird choices. I won't be surprised if something like The Hangover and Star Trek makes the final cut. Having ten best picture movies, just for the record, is really stupid.
1. Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)
2. Jason Reitman (Up in the Air)
3. James Cameron (Avatar)
4. Quentin Tarantino (Inglorious Basterds)
5. Lee Daniels (Precious)
Pretty sure about the top four. Not sure about Daniels, but I think he has a pretty good chance.
1. Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)
2. George Clooney (Up in the Air)
3. Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)
4. Vigo Mortensen (The Road)
5. Morgan Freeman (Invictus)
Dead certain about the first two, pretty sure about number three. The other two spots are a bit of guess work.
1. Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side)
2. Meryl Streep (Julie and Julia)
3. Gabourey Sidibe (Previous)
4. Carey Mulligan (An Education)
5. Penelope Cruz (Broken Embrace)
Dead certain about the first three, and I'm pretty certain about Mulligan. I'm picking Cruz just because the Academy seems to like having her at these shows in tight dresses.
Best Supporting Actor
1. Christoph Waltz (Inglorious Basterds)
2. Woody Harrelson (The Messenger)
3. Matt Damon (Invictus)
4. Christopher Plummer (The Last Station)
5. Stan Tucci (Julie and Julia)
I'm certain about the first pick. After that, eh....
Best Supporting Actress
1. Mo'Nique (Precious)
2. Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air)
3. Samantha Morton (The Messenger)
4. Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart)
5. Sigourney Weaver (Avatar)
Again, I'm sure about the first one. And I'm picking Weaver just because I think the Academy might make some history by picking an actor whose performance was at least partially animated.
Best Original Screenplay
1. Inglorious Basterds
3. The Hurt Locker
4. (500) Days of Summer
I'm dead certain about the first three, not so certain about #4, but a lot of people seem to like it. And I'm picking Avatar just because I know how many people will be pissed off if that movies gets a writing nod.
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. An Education
2. Up in the Air
4. Crazy Heart
5. A Single Man
Dead certain about the first three. As for numbers four and five, who knows.
Best Animated Movie
2. Fantastic Mr. Fox
5. The Princess and the Frog
Pretty damn sure about the first three, the Academy loves Hayao Miyazaki, so I'm pretty certain about that one. Not sure about the last one, so we'll see.
And there you have it. We'll see how right I am in about 12 hours.
1. Lies (live) - Stan Rogers
2. Chips ahoy - The Hold Steady
3. Lust - The Raveonettes
4. First we take Manhattan (live) - Leonard Cohen*
5. Dick-all - Colleen Power