Sunday, September 28, 2008

ABC DOA?

So, I'm just curious about something on the ground in Newfoundland.

Judging by nearly every story and piece of commentary I've read on the Canadian election so far, the Conservatives are going to win. And it's looking increasingly likely that they're going to pull off a majority. Now, somehow I'm going to have to make my peace with that. I don't really recall the last time the Conservatives had a majority in Canada being a particularly fun time for me or the country, but 15 years have apparently dulled the memories a bit.

But anyway, it's probably going to be a Conservative majority. Oh, things could change, but it's going to depend on a massive Harper screw-up. At this point, Canadians aren't going to magically discover the charms of Stephane Dion. It's fairly safe to say that as far as the Canadian electorate is concerned, he has no charms. I've already read stories about the Liberals sharpening their knives for after the election. So Dion is doomed. There's nothing he can do about it. There's nothing the Liberals can really do about it at this point. It's been two years, people just aren't warming to him or the Liberals. The only way they get elected is if Harper is found with kiddie porn on his computer. And that's a hard way to base a winning political strategy.

So given that Harper is going to win, what does this do to Premier Williams ABC strategy? Perhaps it makes no difference whatsoever. Maybe the premier doesn't particularly give a damn one way or another.

Now, I thought ABC was a particularly silly strategy....the wisdom of having our province represented in the federal cabinet by someone from Nova Scotia is...? But sure, if you want to use it as a strategy to maybe slap the federal Conservatives around, see if you could get a few concessions (assuming you hadn't just spent the last year in a immature pissing match the prime minister, that is).

But, the Conservatives are going to win. So, do you take your foot off the gas with about two weeks left? I know the premier isn't going to do anything silly like saying he's changed his mind about ABC or even tell people they can go ahead and vote for whomever they want.

But is he going to stop talking about it so much? Are cabinet minister going to stop campaigning for Liberals and NDP in different federal ridings? Is there going to be an easing up? Will ABC drop off the radar?

Probably not. I imagine the premier's ego is exactly that large. And the only two riding where the Conservatives have a shot are Avalon and St. John's East. And given Williams' personal grudges against Fabian Manning and Craig Westcott, you get the feeling he would be trying to sabotage even if they weren't running for Harper.

But hell, I'm curious. Does anyone see a slowing down of the ABC campaign? Or does anyone think it will slow down?

Last Five
1. Lost together - Blue Rodeo*
2. Don't think twice, it's all right - Bob Dylan
3. First day of my life - Bright Eyes
4. Twisted logic - Coldplay
5. Toys - Colleen Power

6 comments:

Way Way Up said...

My housemate is from "The Rock" and tells me he wonders what Williams is thinking sometimes. I don't really know enough about NFLD politics to comment beyond that.

Jason B said...

See Craig as much as I don't like Williams I absolutely despise Harper and the mindless minions that he calls a party of his team. When I hear them talk about child care and their idiotic 100 dollars, followed by charging 14 year olds as adults I sigh. Looking at the polls I wonder if my country has lost it's mind giving him a majority. To your second point, I've never agreed that provinces should make sure to elect someone from the ruling party to represent them. That divorces the idea of standards and beliefs from the electorate. And just because the provincial representative isn't in government doesn't mean that someone doesn't represent the provinces interest it just means a Harper drone isn't elected.

Geoff Meeker said...

Yes, I have noticed a slowing of the ABC campaign. Williams has grown quiet, and without him fanning the flames, the fire has died down. On the ground here, I have been seeing and hearing a LOT of people express resentment about this premier telling them how to vote (several people who never vote Conservative have told me they are doing so, out of spite). I think the polls are telling the premier the same thing - stop wasting so much energy on ABC and get back to fixing the problems here at home.

WJM said...

And it's looking increasingly likely that they're going to pull off a majority.

It is?

Anonymous said...

My assessment of ABC has been summed up after eaves dropping on a couple of kids speaking at a local coffee shop last week. Apparently, they were just returning from campaigning for the New Democrats when they had the opportunity to voice the benefits of the party to an unsuspecting householder.

The woman answered the door saying that she is not voting for the NDP because she is voting for ABC.

That comment answers all of the nagging doubts I had about the campaign!!

Anonymous said...

I think Danny Williams' and Stephen Harper's mothers need to deal with this. These two little boys are very overdue for a good old fashioned ear pulling and scolding. Yoo Hoo?? Mrs. Williams?? Mrs. Harper??? Make them behave, they're disturbing our election.