Friday, March 05, 2010

My predictions for the winners

So, the Oscars are Sunday and, as promised, I'm offering up my predictions for the Oscars on Sunday. Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin host. You know, it could be good. They're not as culturally "hip" as a Jon Stewart, but they do have a certainly Hollywood charm that could work.

And I know they don't do dance numbers for the best picture nominees anymore, but I hope they do this year, just because I think the dance number for District 9 would be awesome.

Anyway, let's see for the prediction for the winners. I got 83 per cent of the nominations right. Can I do better in guessing the winners?

Best Movie
The Hurt Locker had this pretty well sewn up. However, it's kind of stumbling to the finish. And these awards are as much about politics and campaigns as they are about quality movies. And honestly, I just finished watching The Hurt Locker and I think I'm kind of missing something that others love. Because it's a fine film and all, but the best of the year? Ummm....

The only other movies with a chance are Avatar and Up in the Air. I'm very tempted to go with Avatar, but I'm not sure the Academy members can handle James Cameron up on stage doing his "I'm the King of the World!" thing again. So stumbles and all, I think The Hurt Locker will pull it off.

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker) appears to be a lock again. Although, I have to say, just for being able to pull off what he did in Avatar, it ought to go to James Cameron. You can not like the movie, and many people really do hate it. But my God, how many people on Earth could have directed a movie like that? Most would have just put a gun to their heads instead of trying something of that scope.

Bigelow wins, but I wouldn't be disappointed if Cameron pulled off an upset.

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges is pretty much viewed as a lock. And hell, I enjoyed Clooney in Up in the Air, but he wasn't exactly pushing the boundaries of his acting abilities in that role.

Best Actress
It's a sad, sad day, my friends, when Sandra Bullock beats out Meryl Streep in an actress category. In fact, I just don't think I can do it. I'm going to go and hope the Academy's better angels prevail and they give it to Streep. I'm not saying Julie & Julia was one of her best works, but God, she was so much fun to watch on screen.

Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz (Inglorious Basterds) has this so sown up I don't know why the other nominees are going to bother to show up. As close to a sure thing as you're going to get at the Oscars.

Best Supporting Actress
On the one hand, Mo'Nique (Precious) is considered the favourite. On the other hand, this category is always a deeply weird one, where the favourite actually rarely wins. So I'm going to go out on a limb and pick Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart), just because it's weird. And she's cute.

Best Original Screenplay
The Hurt Locker might be rolling Sunday night, but I think this is where they throw Quentin Tarantino a bone for Inglorious Basterds.

Best Adapted Screenplay
I think it's a toss up between Precious and Up in the Air. This award is going to be the consolation prize for a very long and winless night for one of these movies. I think they give it to Up in the Air.

Best Animated Movie
If they don't give this to Up, I will hunt people down and harm them. For that matter, they should give it to Up for Best Movie.

Or to quote Jack Black from a few years ago. "People wonder how I make money. Well, I do voice overs for Dream Works cartoons and then I take all of that money and bet it on Pixar to win the Best Animated Movie award." Sounds like a plan to me.

Last Five
1. Bend and break - Keane
2. You can have it all - Kaiser Chiefs
3. Jacksonville - Sufjan Stevens
4. Fake tales of San Francisco - Arctic Monkeys*
5. Hunting for witches - Bloc Party

4 comments:

Chantal-mypaperheart said...

I agree with your take on The Hurt Locker. I liked it, but best movie? No one will remember this one years down the road whereas Avatar has star quality.

John Mutford said...

I agree with most of your predictions. A few predictions of my own:

2. James Cameron will win for Avatar. I think the voters will even things out, a vote for Hurt Locker for best picture, but one for Cameron just to share the wealth sort of thing. And as you said, impressive that he pulled off such a technical marvel (even if the plot sucked-- anyone who watched in a 2D theater certainly knew that)

Best Actress: I have faith that it will be Streep. If Bullock does win, the only thing that will dry my tears away will be her winning a Razzie as well. Might be the first year that's happened (she's nominated for All About Steve).

Best Supporting: I think Mo'Nique has this one locked in.

Morena said...

I don't know why people keep shitting on James Cameron for that king of the world line. I've heard he's an ass to work for but I really do think he was trying to be funny. It was a relevant comment considering the movie line, people need to get over it.

Ed Hollett said...

Wow. Turns out you are psychic.

As for Avatar, it will fade as quickly as Titanic and people will never, ever, ever look at either cameron movie the same way they look at The Godfather.

Hurt Locker's not on that level either but let's not confuse hype with quality film-making. Hurt locker won because it is a damn decent movie.