Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Fearless primary prediction

Because I haven't done one of these in a while...

North Carolina
Obama - 54%
Clinton - 46%

Clinton - 52%
Obama - 48%

That essentially means another tie between the two candidates. However, I think the difference is that super delegates are officially getting skittish now. It was all right to let the race continue for the extra few months. It was drumming up the base, getting new people involved with the party and essentially shutting McCain out the news cycle almost completely. And no matter what the two candidates did to each other, McCain still wasn't gaining any kind of edge in national polls.

But after this evening 93% of delegates will have voted. While it is possible for Clinton to still get more delegates than Obama, she would have to win something in excess of 70% of the ones left. And since she has been practically incapable of winning by double digits, I don't see that happening. So the other fearless prediction is that the steady trickle of super delegates who have been siding with Obama opens up into something a bit larger after this evening. I don't think it's over by the end of the week. But I think it will be over by June 3, if not sooner. And Obama will be the candidate.

Last Five
1. Marching bands of Manhattan - Death Cab for Cutie*
2. Redneck friend (live) - Jackson Browne
3. Bohemian Rhapsody - Queen
4. Desparados under the eaves - Warren Zevon
5. Halloweenhead - Ryan Adams

1 comment:

Peter L. Whittle said...

I am still hoping for a Clinton win in Boulder but the math is hard to refute. Although I still think that Obama needs a 10 point spread in North Carolina to shake of detractors. I am hoping for a New Hampshire but the galvanized African American vote will make that next to impossible.