I don't have anything particularly profound to say about the Newfoundland election yet or a seat prediction. I could pick apart the different policy platforms of the parties, but others are already doing a good job of that. Although I am pleased that the one common thread is that party's seem to be going through great pains to explain exactly how they're going to pay for the promises they're making. You can argue whether or not if they're dreaming in technicolour, but I'm at least glad to see the debate happening.
People in the province have, for way too many years, just gobbled down hook, line and sinker whatever politicians promised about how we're going to do all these wonderful things for you - more teachers, more doctors, pave all your roads - but have always failed to mention how they were going to pay for all of that. We're all in a reality where promising to do stuff isn't enough anymore....how you're going to pay for it and is that the best way to spend that money is also important.
As for the rest, well, I remain slightly shocked the NDP are ahead of the Liberals in the polls. But percentages mean nothing in this race. If the NDP is going to have a shot, I think they're going to have to run a smooth, smart campaign, focus where they can win and pray for a late breaking wave like what happened federally and steal a bunch of seats in the St. John's metro area.
Having said that, they're still making some amateur hour mistakes. They launched their campaign on Monday near a construction zone. Yes, I understand you're try to make a point about housing for seniors, but make it in a quieter place. TV and radio reporters are important, and they have special needs. When you're staging your press event or media availability, you have to take these things into account.
So noise on Monday was a problem. Doing a policy release at 3 pm, which is deathly close to deadline for TV reporters (it was later bumped back to 1:30), having an event inside but not providing an audio system or lights for camera crews, producing a sign for the event that someone running for class president in junior high wouldn't use...
It's stupid little stuff like that which will kill you in a three week election campaign. It makes you look amateurish, which will eventually show up in the coverage. This election is all about showing the NDP are ready for prime time. Well, time to start acting like a professional campaign.
As for the Liberals, the only thing that jumped out at me is that perhaps when launching a campaign focussing on rural Newfoundland, doing it from St. John's is not the best way to do it. If you absolutely need to do it in St. John's because you want access to the town media, then at least go to Petty Harbour or Portugal Cove or something. Better still, launch it out on the west coast or something. Not exactly a stroke of genius there...
I haven't seen any bonehead stuff from the PCs yet, or complaints from reporters covering the campaign. Which means so far they are running a conservative, smart, straight forward campaign. Which is what you would expect. This is theirs to lose and they know it.
It's early days yet, so we'll see how it goes. But so far, I think it's pretty much going as expected. Which is to say, kind of boring.
All from "Patton Oswalt's Finest Hour"